Peltola Nears Alaska Senate Win With 10,412-Vote Lead: What's Next
Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 10,412 votes in Alaska's last uncalled Senate race, just short of the outright majority that avoids a ranked-choice count.
Image: Wikimedia Commons / Office of Representative Mary Peltola
ANCHORAGE, Alaska — Democrat Mary Peltola widened her lead over Republican Senator Dan Sullivan to 10,412 votes in Alaska’s still-uncalled US Senate race, unofficial results from the Alaska Division of Elections showed on Friday night, leaving her fewer than 500 votes short of the outright majority that would settle the contest.
Peltola, a former congresswoman, held 138,240 first-choice votes, or 49.84 per cent, against 127,828, or 46.09 per cent, for Sullivan, a two-term incumbent, with about 96 per cent of expected ballots counted. The Associated Press has not called the race, the last US Senate contest of the 2026 midterms still without a projected winner.
Key Takeaways
- Peltola leads Sullivan 138,240 votes to 127,828 — a margin of 10,412 — with about 96 per cent of expected ballots counted.
- She sits fewer than 500 votes short of the 50 per cent majority that would win the seat outright.
- If no candidate reaches 50 per cent, Alaska runs its ranked-choice tabulation on November 18, with certification targeted for November 25.
- A Peltola win would give Democrats a 56th seat in the Senate after their midterm gains.
Alaska Senate Results: Peltola 138,240 Votes, Sullivan 127,828 in Latest Count
The Friday-night update counted 22,511 more ballots and stretched Peltola’s lead sharply. Earlier on Friday she had led by about 5,800 votes, 125,157 to 119,357, with about 88 per cent counted. The new batch lifted her to 49.84 per cent and Sullivan to 46.09 per cent.
| Candidate | Party | First-choice votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | Democrat | 138,240 | 49.84% |
| Dan Sullivan | Republican | 127,828 | 46.09% |
| Gerald Heikes | Republican | 5,885 | 2.12% |
| Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. | Undeclared | 4,560 | 1.64% |
| Write-ins | — | 855 | 0.31% |
With fewer than 12,000 ballots left, Peltola is nearing a mathematical lock on the first-choice vote. Her campaign declared victory on Friday. Sullivan’s campaign has not conceded: spokesman Nate Adams said it was still waiting for every ballot to be counted.
When Will the Alaska Senate Race Be Decided? Ranked-Choice Vote on November 18
If no candidate wins more than half of first-choice votes, the state eliminates the last-place candidate and reallocates those ballots to voters’ next choices until one candidate passes 50 per cent. The Alaska Division of Elections has set the ranked-choice tabulation for November 18 and has targeted November 25 for certification.
The second choices of the two minor candidates could still matter. Heikes and Sullivan Jr. hold 10,445 first-choice votes between them, 33 more than Peltola’s lead, so their voters’ next preferences would decide the seat if the contest goes to tabulation.
What a Peltola Win Would Mean for the Senate and the Midterms
A Peltola victory would extend a strong Democratic night in Alaska, where Kreiss-Tomkins has already won the governor’s race, the party’s first win there since 1998. Nationally, it would give Democrats a 56th seat in the Senate and close out the last uncalled contest of a midterm cycle in which the party made sweeping gains.
The result also lands as Senate Democrats settle their leadership, with Senator Chris Van Hollen challenging Chuck Schumer for majority leader ahead of a December 1 vote. Peltola, the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, served in the House from 2022 until this year before challenging Sullivan, who has held the seat since 2015.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Alaska Senate race?
Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 10,412 votes, 138,240 to 127,828, with about 96 per cent of expected ballots counted. The Associated Press has not called the race.
When will the Alaska Senate race be decided?
If no candidate reaches 50 per cent of first-choice votes, Alaska will run its ranked-choice tabulation on November 18. The Division of Elections has targeted November 25 to certify the result.
How does ranked-choice voting work in Alaska?
If no candidate wins more than half of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and those ballots move to voters’ next choices. The process repeats until one candidate passes 50 per cent.
What happens if Mary Peltola wins the Alaska Senate race?
She would take the seat in January, giving Democrats a 56th seat in the Senate, while Sullivan would leave office after two terms. Her campaign has already declared victory, though the race remains uncalled until the count is complete.
The Division of Elections will run the ranked-choice tabulation on November 18, with certification targeted for November 25.
